A Time For Black Swans


According To Hoyt

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A Black Swan Event (the expectation at least proverbially being that all swan’s are snow-white) is defined as something happening that no one could have anticipated from what went on before.

The problem I have with these is that it’s almost 100% not true that no  one could have anticipated them.  Take this list for instance:  5 Top Black Swan Events In History.

For instance, I think if our agencies were able to talk to each other, the 9/11 attack might have been thwarted.

I also think only a blind person, or one determined to believe propaganda would fail to get that the USSR WOULD collapse in the near future. I mean, maybe people less jaded than my 14 year old self actually believed the Soviet Life glossy photos. I know CIA agents did, but they’re a particularly gullible breed, after all.

Which in turn brings us to the point…

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